A new report from the Canadian American Business Council highlights the severe economic consequences Canada could face if the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) is not successfully renegotiated. The analysis indicates that a breakdown of the trade deal could result in the loss of 102,000 Canadian jobs and a significant hit to the nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The report, prepared by Oxford Economics, examined three potential scenarios: a status quo with existing tariffs, a complete breakdown of CUSMA, and a successful renegotiation. In the event of a breakdown, the study projects that the United States would lose 214,000 jobs, while Canada would see 102,000 jobs disappear by 2027. Conversely, a successful renegotiation is predicted to create approximately 98,000 new jobs in Canada and 137,000 in the U. S.
Beyond job losses, the economic fallout from a CUSMA failure could be immense. The report estimates that the U. S. economy could lose $1.04 trillion USD and Canada $271 billion CAD by 2035. This scenario is also expected to fuel inflation and stunt the growth of real disposable income for Canadians. The ongoing trade talks between Canada and the U. S. are critical, especially with a looming tariff deadline, making the outcome of these negotiations vital for Canada's economic future.
