Recent data indicates that Canada's progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions came to a standstill in 2024. This stall in emissions reduction raises concerns about the country's ability to meet its commitment to reduce emissions by 40 to 45 percent below 2005 levels by 2030.
The Canadian Climate Institute reports that Canada's emissions remained at 694 megatonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent (Mt CO2e) in 2024, virtually unchanged from the previous year. While emissions are 8.5 percent below 2005 levels, the rate of decoupling economic growth from emissions has slowed significantly. The emissions intensity of Canada's economic growth fell by just 1.5 percent in 2024, a figure considerably lower than historical norms.
Several factors contributed to the emissions stall. Increased emissions from the oil and gas sector, particularly oil sands production, offset reductions in other sectors. While emissions from electricity generation and buildings decreased, these reductions were not enough to counteract the upward momentum in the oil and gas sector. A colder winter in 2024 also contributed to a slower pace of decline in building emissions.
The current trajectory suggests that Canada is on track to reduce emissions by only 20 to 25 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. Achieving the legislated target would require significant year-over-year reductions, far exceeding the ambition of current policies. Experts warn that without stronger policy measures and accelerated action across all sectors, Canada will fall short of its climate goals.
