A year after Premier Doug Ford secured a third consecutive majority government promising to protect Ontario from American tariffs, the repercussions of those tariffs continue to shape the province's political and economic landscape. Experts suggest the coming year could present even greater challenges for the Ford government as crucial trade negotiations between Canada and the U. S. are set to unfold.
During his re-election campaign, Ford positioned himself as "Captain Canada," aggressively opposing then U. S. President Donald Trump and his tariff policies. Despite a recent U. S. Supreme Court ruling that struck down some of Trump's tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), sector-specific tariffs, particularly those impacting steel, aluminum, and automobiles, remain in effect. These tariffs have significantly impacted Ontario's trade-dependent economy, leading to thousands of job losses, especially in the auto, steel, and aluminum sectors. The province's unemployment rate climbed to 7.8 percent last year, according to the province's fiscal watchdog, with nearly 40,000 jobs lost between the second and third quarters of 2025 due to the trade war.
Ford has publicly criticized Trump's actions, questioning the turmoil one individual can create. He even threatened to cut off Ontario's energy exports to the U. S. in retaliation to the tariffs. However, some analysts believe Ford's aggressive stance may have backfired, potentially undermining trade negotiations with the U. S.. McMaster University political science professor Peter Graefe noted that while Ford maintained a ban on American alcohol in LCBO stores, he reversed course on a proposed electricity export surcharge to some American states.
Despite these challenges, the Ontario government is trying to protect workers and businesses by building a more resilient and self-reliant economy. Initiatives include the Ontario Together Trade Fund and the Trade-Impacted Communities Program to help businesses diversify markets and strengthen domestic supply chains. The government has also allocated additional funds to Invest Ontario to attract job-creating investments. While manufacturing remains a critical economic engine for Canada, the sector is projected to see low but positive real GDP growth. The emphasis is shifting towards quality, flexibility, speed, and innovation, with companies focusing on resilience, localized sourcing, and advanced technologies.
