Statistics Canada is scheduled to release fresh inflation data for February today, March 16, 2026. Economists anticipate a decrease in the annual inflation rate, potentially reaching 1.9%, a notable dip from January's 2.3%. The expected figures will be a key consideration for the Bank of Canada as it approaches its interest rate decision on Wednesday. Last month, the central bank maintained its key rate at 2.25%.
The forthcoming inflation data arrives on the heels of a Statistics Canada report indicating a significant loss of 84,000 jobs in February. This downturn has pushed the unemployment rate up by 0.2 percentage points, settling at 6.7%. Katherine Judge, a senior economist at CIBC, described the jobs report as "bad on almost every single measure". However, she also suggested that the softness in the labour market could counterbalance inflationary pressures stemming from the recent surge in oil prices due to the Mideast War.
According to Trading Economics' global macro models, Canada's inflation rate is expected to be 1.8% by the end of this quarter. Their econometric models project a long-term trend of around 2.2% in 2027 and 2.3% in 2028.
Canadians are closely watching these economic indicators as they navigate rising costs of living. Shelter and transportation remain the most significant components of the CPI basket, accounting for 30% and 17% of the total weight, respectively. The Bank of Canada's upcoming decision will be crucial in determining the path forward for interest rates and their impact on the Canadian economy.
